On the verge of the Chinese Year of the Horse and almost an entire month into 2014, it’s appropriate to think of a few things that might happen over the next 12 months:
- Australian wine exports will continue to decline by volume but increase by value. The China market will begin to recover its previous momentum, but this will doubtless occur in a different way to what we have seen before. The US market will continue to be a place for optimism and seeded growth, but it needs plenty more work and investment. Harvey Steiman has just published another fine piece in The Wine Spectator that talks about the re-emergence in the US of professional interest in Australian wine and he expects steady growth in that key market. Similarly, there are grounds for optimism in the mid to upper end of the UK market. Australian wine could become the flavour of the month, again!
- We’re most likely in for a smaller vintage. This will certainly provide some relief for the industry at large, but has the capacity to cause havoc for those who could sell more wine than they’re able to access. Small vintages also tend to reduce the levels of bulk wine exports, which will do our national reputation no harm.
- Quality will be patchy from 2014. Poor weather during flowering and extreme heat during the ripening season are hardly ideal. However, our makers have shown in previous hot seasons that they’re learning on the job and recent experience tells us (again) never to write off a vintage until it’s in the bottle. Later regions and those to have escaped the heat could still do well.
- Australian wine will have a higher profile by the year’s end. The merger between Wine Australia and the Grape and Wine Research Development Corporation (GWRDC) will improve the industry’s access to export promotional funding and the strong partnership now existent with Tourism Australia will strongly drive a strong and entirely appropriate message under the overall banner of Restaurant Australia. This theme will be rolled out into Australia’s key tourism markets, which happen to dovetail closely with our major wine export markets. It’s an exciting time and there’s a stronger sense of optimism in Australian wine than there has been for several years.
- We’re in for a tough year from the neo-prohibitionsits. One thing’s for certain and already it appears the stage has already been set – the wine industry is going to have to defend itself against the so-called health lobby throughout the next year. The year’s early focus on alcohol-fueled violence in Sydney and the new TV advertisements concerning the effects of a one-punch hit in a hotel bar – neither of which are things I advocate in any way – are setting the scene for more of the ongoing battle that is inseparable from the issue of wine industry tax reform, the instrument being canvassed on talk radio nearly every morning to reduce the access to alcohol by younger people. Wine must continue to differentiate itself from the beverages that are more central to this plot.
- It’s tough being a grape grower. If you’re growing grapes without a contract it’s almost certain you’re not happy with your lot. More vineyards will be uprooted or abandoned in 2014. Probably not enough, however, to really affect the balance between supply and demand.
- Australian wines will finally be seen in more Australian restaurants. There’s no doubt that amongst those in wine-producing countries, Australian wine buyers lead the world in their levels of scepticism towards their own industry. Finally, however, helped along by some of the younger producers who tend to relate better with our young generation of sommeliers, Australian wine is actually in danger of becoming fashionable again in cities like Melbourne and Sydney. Wine Australia deserves great credit for taking many of the sommelier community into Australian wine regions of late, and the response has been first class.
