Never before has there been so much measurement of the performance and prediction of future expectations of the Australian wine industry. Indeed never have there been so many potentially contradictory indicators, each of which if assessed by themselves are so easily taken out of context. In recent days there has been a drop in the share value of Southcorp, as analysts query earnings expectations for this and the next financial year over possible softer sales in Australia and the US. After a 10% decline last year, Riverland red grape prices for the 2002 vintage are expected to be down by 15%, while uncontracted growers in all regions are presently finding it difficult if not impossible to secure markets for their fruit. Wineries have yet to talk about cheaper finished wines, but given their take relative to that of the Federal Government, that’s hardly surprising. Given the estimated size of the 2002 vintage, other analysts are predicting that exports will need to increase by 20-40% to sop up surplus growth. Yet despite so much media-driven doom and gloom, and despite a 36.6% fall from last October to November, Australian wine exports continued to increase at record levels in the calendar year of 2001 at above the level apparently required. With increases in volume of 21% to 375m litres and value of 19% to A$1.76b, exports have been driven by demand in the UK and US, which together account for 80% of the increase and 70% of the total volume sold. Red wine accounts for two thirds of the extra volume, while a decline in the value per litre of 1.5% can be attributed to the ever-increasing proportion of young vineyards in Australia. Aside from the two main markets, New Zealand is the third biggest market by volume and Canada by value. Weirdly, France is Australia’s fastest-growing market, but this might simply reflect its role as a shipping stage for other destinations in Europe.
