BIS Shrapnel handsomely failed add to the intellectual weight of argument over the immediate future of Australian wine when it released its report entitled The Future of Liquor in Australia, 2001-2010. It didn’t consider key issues like quality, marketing and changing consumer patterns when it claimed that Australia’s export expectations might be ‘wildly optimistic’. Recent surveys suggest dramatic growth in the quality wine markets of the UK and the US, while Australia is only for the first time now attempting to maintain a foothold in some of the world’s most important markets in Europe and Asia. While I agree with the suggestion that there will be some degree of ‘supply hump’ as a result of recent plantings, Australia remains well set to compete against all rivals for an increased export share. The report, which manages to grossly under-estimate the market share of Australia’s four largest companies, also fails to acknowledge that over the last two decades of dramatic export growth, the industry has been constantly polarised to a similar extent.
